EP139: Could it be that house prices are starting to rise? Really? I discuss the latest data with Eyeedul Haque
Two biggest stories from the recent data is that some price data is actually showing a small increase in house prices. Second, rents just continue to increase. We dig into why.
Key points:
Prices starting to level off. Rightmove is showing prices are actually increasing on a month on month basis. How much of this is lack of supply?
HMRC transaction levels are 20% lower than a year ago. Most of this is down to a lack of availability of credit due to interest rates being so high. Sellers are also sitting out with only those who desperately need to sell selling.
Interest rates remained at 5.25% for the second month in a row. While inflation still not at the 2% target, 6 out of the 9 Bank of England members decided to keep rates on hold. Commentary from the BoE show that they believe the interest rates have topped out.
Mortgage rates have come down about a percent since June.
Rents increased 12% nationally y/y and are forecast to increase another 25% over the next two years*. People are unable to afford mortgages so they're forced into the rental market. Combined with 43% fewer properties available since 2019.
Landlords are not winning by demanding higher rents as most need to service much higher mortgages.
Two areas where rents declined in Scotland and West Midlands, -0.8% y/y and -0.5% y/y, respectively.
We also talked about the soaring homelessness, especially in Liverpool and even the excess consumption of cheap clothing by Brit
Another interesting discussion was that small corporate BTL landlords are still paying excessive arrangement fees of 7%. Eyeedul even saw a one year fixed rate of 3.75% with a 15% arrangement fee!! It's kicking the can down the road as that fee is added to the end of the mortgage while it helps to keep cashflow manageable. It's no wonder that some landlords are choosing to go on a one year bridge as they're cheaper than BTL products.
Join us live on 11 December as Eyeedul and I continue the discussion on UK house prices.
https://www.hamptons.co.uk/research/reports/market-insight-forecasts-2023/rental-market-forecast#/
Join us live every month as Eyeedul Haque of My Property Consultant and I crunch the data behind the UK house price headlines.
